July 28, 2008

Life Expectancy With HIV Increases Dramatically

A 20-year-old HIV-positive person starting antiretroviral (ARV) therapy today can expect to live, on average, to the age of 69, according to new calculations published July 26 in The Lancet. The study authors say this is a life expectancy increase of 37 percent over projections for 20-year-olds starting ARVs during the early years of combination treatment. 
 
HIV-positive people have frequently asked their health care providers how long they will live with the virus, especially with so many effective ARV options to choose from. Few studies have attempted to answer this question-until now.

To determine life expectancy among HIV-positive patients, an international roster of researchers joined forces and reviewed the medical records of more than 43,000 people living with the virus in the United States, Canada and several European countries. The study participants were split into three groups: 18,587 people who started ARV treatment between 1996 and 1999, 13,914 who started treatment between 2000 and 2002, and 10,854 people who started treatment between 2003 and 2005.

The researchers predicted that a 20-year-old person starting ARV treatment between 1996 and 1999, the early years of combination ARV therapy, could be expected to live an additional 36 years, to the age of 56. This increased significantly, however, as time passed. A 20-year-old who started treatment between 2003 and 2005 was expected to live an additional 49 years, to the age of 69.

The average life expectancy for a 20-year-old who remains HIV negative, at least in industrialized nations, is an additional 60 years—with death occurring, on average, at the age of 80.

HIV-positive people who didn't start ARV treatment until their CD4s dropped to 100 were expected to live 10 fewer years than people who started therapy when their CD4s were above 200. The authors also determined that HIV-positive people with a history of injection drug use were expected to live 10 fewer years than those who never used injection drugs.

In a letter in The Lancet commenting on the study, David Cooper, MD, from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, questions whether starting ARV treatment even earlier, at a CD4 count above 500 for instance, may bring life expectancy even closer to normal. Dr. Cooper hopes that the international Strategic Timing of Anti-Retroviral Treatment (START) clinical trial, which is investigating earlier initiation of ARV treatment, will provide the answer.

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Previous Comments:

tracy, johannesburg, 2009-06-02 05:32:53
I have started taking arvs in 2003 and my CD4 was 235 and now my CD4 is 1500 and viral load is undetectable. I try to eat healthy, i exercise and i believe that i will live for a very long time. How long do you think i will live? south africa

Bob, Indianapolis, 2009-05-31 16:44:43
I probably became poz in the mid to late 80's and when I first started taking meds (20+) pills a day was very brutal to comply. Now 1 pill a day in the evening. I have had one symptom (shingles), but it wasn't too bad. Doing well and faithful to take meds, see the doctor, eat right and exercise....and stay positive about all of life. This is now a manageable disease!

MB.ergete, Addis Ababa, 2009-05-30 11:16:13
I am +ve since 2002,my first medc failed on 2007 and now I am on the 2nd line taking Kaletra, Viread and Lamuvidin, do you think I have a chance to live, if this medicine failed to work?

Pauline, illinois, 2009-05-21 11:21:53
Im not afraid of when ill die it could be tomorow heck i could die today it is a little comforting to know that they have come up with a idea of the life expectancy. I was one of the ones who was an iv drug user im proud to say i have 2 yrs clean and i take my meds and am doing great i just keep living for today cause tomorow is promised to no one.

jake skii, baltimore, 2009-05-20 16:53:14
I have been positive since 1999. I just started taking the medication atripla and in less than 3 months my viral load went from like 250,000 to undetectable and i have not had any side effects at all from the med my CD4 count was 680 before i started on the meds and now my CD4 is 780 im as healthy as a ox and i love to work out and enjoy life and so should you all this is not a death sentence just remember always put GOD first and he will handle the rest for you. good luck

Mike, Annandale, 2009-05-13 11:43:38
I was first diagnosed at 49 years old with AIDS and PCP in Dec 2002. I started treatment in Jan 2003 with a CD4 count of 120. Six years later my CD4 is 518 and Undetectable. However, the related gastrointestinal , colon problems, memory, concentration issues, depression and severe arthritis cause me problems daily. Things are not easy, but livable. I have heard due to my starting treatment late in the disease, I have lost many years. However, I still hope to live until at least my mid 70

Liquidsky, Orlando, 2009-05-13 10:44:00
You guys are missing the point...This is fantastic news! Can you just imagine how far the Meds will come in the the next ten years? Don't be surprised to see a cure. Gosh, starting at 20 and living to 70 would have been such wonderful news to those who did not have access to the treatment in the 80's. Stop being so negative thinkers...this news is FANTASTIC. I have been on Atripla since 05. I'm now 43 and have not had ONE side effect and my VL is undetectable and my TCELL are 780.

Julie Sheren, Alanson, 2009-03-05 11:18:34
My doc said viral loads can change drastically all the time. One month ago I was at 625,000, this month 42,000. He said that's common. Can I believe that?

David, Los Angeles, 2009-03-05 02:23:26
And another thing, NO ONE is promised tomorrow, so how are you going to live today? I don't plan to let this thing rule the rest of my life, what about you?

David, Los Angeles, 2009-03-05 02:18:40
I learned that I was positive 10 months ago. I have been on an emotional roller coaster ever since that day. I cried my self to sleep every night (and most other things) for a week. I am incredibly sad for all of the negative minds who are commenting here, because when you lose hope you have nothing left. I am thankful that coming to terms with LIVING hiv+ has reminded me how wonderful life is, and to make the most of the time you do have in this incredible place.

Matt Stevens, Dallas, 2009-03-02 19:10:04
I had stored blood from a San Francisco Pre Hep B vaccine study in 1978-79. I had them test that blood in 1989 & we discovered I was HIV poz in 1978! I am 55 now, 31 years poz. What is MY life expectancy? My viral load is still undetectable & CD4's are in the 450 range. -Matt Stevens, Dallas TX

Joey R, Houston, TX, 2009-02-26 12:58:34
I was diagnosed 2 days ago, and this is the first I've talked about it. I do not know my 'counts' nor what course of treatment I will take. I am not scared, yet, but am trying to learn all I can about my options (including holistic) and keeping a positive attitude. maybe now i will start fulfilling my dreams, but it's a high price to pay for what i could've been doing before this. thank you.

jjjjjjjj, DC, 2009-02-25 10:35:55
Back on meds.. I am doubtful as to my compliance. Legal weed is the best thing.. Thanks to Sen. Lott.. DC is not able to have this. If I must require meds then I am not whole.. So understand if I hope to be none.

ccc, Columbus, Ohio, 2009-01-12 12:49:39
For those of u with negative comments,u need to read the article again.Bad counts,other diseases-still a problem.There is no promise for anyone,but each day u survive is another day for research to buy u more time,with better meds and hopefully a cure.NO ONE is promised time on this earth, healthy or ill.MANY died in early years but fewer now if in care/if U take meds if needed.POSITIVE attitude is everything,ask the kids who survived the early days-they weren't supposed to live to be 5but did!

rob cook, california, 2008-12-10 13:17:36
it drives me nuts how biased the media is to HIV. there are tons of people out there who have never taken meds and have never been sick, and who have lived 20 years that way. i refuse to believe that my life is over at 69. i also refuse to have such a poor quality of life from the meds atleast now. I disagree with starting the meds before you get sick. I went on the soon after my diagnosis and was sick for 3 yrs.i went off them 3 months ago and went holistic. aspiringyogi dot ning dot com