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A 20-year-old HIV-positive person starting antiretroviral (ARV) therapy today can expect to live, on average, to the age of 69, according to new calculations published July 26 in The Lancet. The study authors say this is a life expectancy increase of 37 percent over projections for 20-year-olds starting ARVs during the early years of combination treatment.
HIV-positive people have frequently asked their health care providers how long they will live with the virus, especially with so many effective ARV options to choose from. Few studies have attempted to answer this question-until now.
To determine life expectancy among HIV-positive patients, an international roster of researchers joined forces and reviewed the medical records of more than 43,000 people living with the virus in the United States, Canada and several European countries. The study participants were split into three groups: 18,587 people who started ARV treatment between 1996 and 1999, 13,914 who started treatment between 2000 and 2002, and 10,854 people who started treatment between 2003 and 2005.
The researchers predicted that a 20-year-old person starting ARV treatment between 1996 and 1999, the early years of combination ARV therapy, could be expected to live an additional 36 years, to the age of 56. This increased significantly, however, as time passed. A 20-year-old who started treatment between 2003 and 2005 was expected to live an additional 49 years, to the age of 69.
The average life expectancy for a 20-year-old who remains HIV negative, at least in industrialized nations, is an additional 60 years—with death occurring, on average, at the age of 80.
HIV-positive people who didn't start ARV treatment until their CD4s dropped to 100 were expected to live 10 fewer years than people who started therapy when their CD4s were above 200. The authors also determined that HIV-positive people with a history of injection drug use were expected to live 10 fewer years than those who never used injection drugs.
In a letter in The Lancet commenting on the study, David Cooper, MD, from the University of New South Wales in Sydney, questions whether starting ARV treatment even earlier, at a CD4 count above 500 for instance, may bring life expectancy even closer to normal. Dr. Cooper hopes that the international Strategic Timing of Anti-Retroviral Treatment (START) clinical trial, which is investigating earlier initiation of ARV treatment, will provide the answer.
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Previous Comments:
comments 1 - 6 (of 6 total)
Andrina Simengwa, Malawi, 2008-08-19 10:04:47
How about us who are living in third world countries or sub saharan countries like Malawi. How long may we live, just to predict i.e someone who started ARVs in 2002 and what should we do to live longer
Tesfaye Alemu, Addis Ababa, 2008-08-15 07:26:06
What about the cases for the rest of the world, for example Africa, Asia Latin America and Sub Saharan Africa
JEvans, Atlanta, 2008-08-04 15:49:54
I've known my positive status since 05. Since then, luckily my life has been so full of completing my life's to do's, I have not had much time to dwell on it. Additionally, my sexual practices had become increasingly risky, therefore I wasn't surprised with the confirmation just devastated. My CD4 count was 128 when I was first tested. I started meds immediately, I became dilligent about my workouts, and I've recently obtained a BSW and MSW. For me, a new life began when I learned my status
Jessica Cox, Herriman, 2008-07-30 23:29:35
I met the love of my life nearly one year ago. She has changed my life for the better, to say the least. We met with a charity group raising money for leukemia and lymphoma, as my first attempt to run a full marathon. Amanda was my running coach. From that moment on my life has been different. I started out to better myself and help raise money, but in the process I fell in love. Amanda is HIV positive and was battling Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (which is now in remission). She is a warrior.
raymond hilerio, NYC, 2008-07-30 23:02:59
I do not want to live with this virus. You make seem as if it easy taking all the medications that you have to take. You do not mention all the side effects and the stigma still associated with hiv. Tell the truth, maybe that way those who think that all you have to take a few pill and they can live happily thereafter. Whoever wrote this is not positive or is out of his mind.
shannon, lake charles, 2008-07-30 21:38:52
wow this is awesome cause it does work on my mind of how much time i have but noone really knows how much time we have except for GOD and that i have to trust in him when he is ready for me then i will keep living my life to the fullest till he calls me home.....
